A lone and young supercell, vigorous convection propelling a backshearing cloud mass westward, dominated the southern sky. On a day with strong capping and questionable storm development potential, this sunset special was the only daylight storm to form in a 400 mile long swath of dryline between central Oklahoma and south Texas. This storm would last just long enough to cause a few reports of damaging hail near 2 inches in diameter, before dying quickly in stabilizing evening air southeast of Norman. For all the advances in severe weather prediction that have been made in the last couple decades, selecting the specific location and timing of storm development still may be the most elusive nugget of understanding, and the biggest source of uncertainty (by far) in short-term forecasting. If not, the hardest thing to forecast with a storm is when it will dissipate.
Norman OK (21 Apr 8) Looking S
35.1819, -97.4411Backshear Catching Rays
A lone and young supercell, vigorous convection propelling a backshearing cloud mass westward, dominated the southern sky. On a day with strong capping and questionable storm development potential, this sunset special was the only daylight storm to form in a 400 mile long swath of dryline between central Oklahoma and south Texas. This storm would last just long enough to cause a few reports of damaging hail near 2 inches in diameter, before dying quickly in stabilizing evening air southeast of Norman. For all the advances in severe weather prediction that have been made in the last couple decades, selecting the specific location and timing of storm development still may be the most elusive nugget of understanding, and the biggest source of uncertainty (by far) in short-term forecasting. If not, the hardest thing to forecast with a storm is when it will dissipate.
Norman OK (21 Apr 8) Looking S
35.1819, -97.4411